In a humming Nairobi factory where Levi’s and Wrangler jeans are stitched for the U.S. market, anxiety hangs as heavily as the scent of fabric dye. At United Aryan’s export processing zone, hundreds of sewing machines chatter in unison, yet uncertainty over the future could soon silence them.
The livelihoods of roughly 16,000 workers in this sprawling garment hub are now in jeopardy. Come September, a critical trade lifeline, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire unless renewed by the U.S. government. The duty-free agreement, which opened U.S. markets to qualifying African countries, has been instrumental in bolstering Kenya’s apparel exports for 25 years.
But that lifeline is fraying.
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Factory founder Pankaj Bedi warns that without AGOA, Kenya’s textile industry cannot survive. “This time around, we are hoping that President Trump will pass it for a longer period, then a long-term strategy can come in play,” he said, calling for stability beyond the past decade-long extensions.
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AGOA, established to reward governance and human rights progress, granted African nations access to U.S. markets with zero tariffs. In return, the U.S. gained diplomatic capital and an African manufacturing base, until now. The Trump administration’s emphasis on tariffs and reshoring U.S. jobs is rattling global partners.
“Consistent with Trump’s priority to re-shore jobs,” economist Wangari Muikia said in an AP report, “ending AGOA may strain diplomatic ties and weaken American soft power.”
Indeed, the tremors of this potential policy shift have been felt across Africa. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighted the urgency of the situation after meeting President Trump: “It is top of mind for them as well.”
Bedi remains firm in his belief that Africa holds unmatched promise as the next global production hub. “I think the real shift of supply chain will happen, and Africa is the last frontier. We cannot go to the moon and start manufacturing there,” he said, citing the continent’s vast youthful population, 70% under age 30.
Yet not all African leaders are convinced by AGOA’s terms. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has pushed back, criticizing U.S. attempts to shape domestic policy through trade leverage, especially on sensitive issues like LGBTQ+ rights.
Even within Kenya, there’s skepticism. Former U.N. ambassador Martin Kimani voiced concerns about AGOA’s reliability: “The real measure of a trade regime is its predictability and its integration into long-term production,” he said. “The tariffs and the program’s upcoming expiration signal that AGOA is not a stable foundation for African industrial growth.”
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The numbers emphasise AGOA’s significance. In 2023 alone, Kenya exported $510 million worth of goods, ranging from handicrafts to garments to the U.S. under AGOA. United Aryan alone ships eight million pairs of jeans annually.
Yet Kenya’s government has remained silent, declining to comment on the potential collapse of the agreement or the political forces driving it.
If AGOA falters, economist James Shikwati says Kenya must pivot quickly to alternative trade frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). But that option is riddled with hurdles from poor transport infrastructure to fractured trust among member states and weak dispute-resolution mechanisms.
“Every trade partner will need to reevaluate its engagement with the U.S.,” Shikwati said, pointing to the Trump administration’s erratic trade policy as a warning signal.
For workers like 59-year-old Valdes Samora, the stakes are deeply personal. After two decades of stitching denim at United Aryan, he now faces an uncertain future. His wife works at the factory too. Together, they support a family of nine on a modest monthly wage of $200.
“I never completed my education, but through this work I have been able to educate my children,” he said, quietly hoping that the machines and his livelihood will keep running past September.
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